F1 WINNER PREDICTOR
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2026 Monaco Grand Prix · Round 6 · 2026-06-07
Circuit de Monaco, Monte Carlo, Monaco
(qualifying hasn't happened — prediction uses form + track history only)
PICK: Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) — 95.4% of field share (calibrated P(win): 57.5%)
# DRIVER CONSTRUCTOR GRID Δ CONFIDENCE
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1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes - - ████████████████████████ 95.4%
+ starting near the front, + high in the championship, + team's season finishes strong
2 Isack Hadjar Red Bull - - █░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 2.0%
+ starting near the front, + team's season finishes strong, + scored little this season
3 Max Verstappen Red Bull - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 1.1%
+ starting near the front, + team consistent podium scorers, + team's season finishes strong
4 Lando Norris McLaren - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.4%
+ starting near the front, + team consistent podium scorers, + team's season finishes strong
5 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.4%
+ starting near the front, + weak at this circuit, + scored well this season
6 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.3%
7 Oscar Piastri McLaren - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.2%
8 Charles Leclerc Ferrari - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.1%
9 George Russell Mercedes - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.0%
10 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.0%
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walk-forward eval: top-1 50.0% · top-3 83.7% · pole baseline 52.8%
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Δ = grid - predicted finish (▲ gains, ▼ drops, = no change, - no grid yet)
params: ?season=YYYY&round=N · ?races=N · ?top=N · ?refresh=1