F1 WINNER PREDICTOR
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2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix · Round 15 · 2026-09-26
Baku City Circuit, Baku, Azerbaijan
(qualifying hasn't happened — prediction uses form + track history only)
PICK: Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) — 95.1% of field share (calibrated P(win): 58.2%)
# DRIVER CONSTRUCTOR GRID Δ CONFIDENCE
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1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes - - ████████████████████████ 95.1%
+ scored well this season, + starting near the front, + strong win rate this season
2 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari - - █░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 4.5%
+ starting near the front, + strong recent finishes, + scored well this season
3 Max Verstappen Red Bull - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.1%
+ starting near the front, + team consistent podium scorers, + team's season finishes strong
4 Liam Lawson Red Bull - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.1%
+ starting near the front, + team consistent podium scorers, + team's season finishes strong
5 Charles Leclerc Ferrari - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.0%
+ starting near the front, + team scoring well, − strong season finishes
6 Oscar Piastri McLaren - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.0%
7 George Russell Mercedes - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.0%
8 Lando Norris McLaren - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.0%
9 Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.0%
10 Yuki Tsunoda RB F1 Team - - ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0.0%
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walk-forward eval: top-1 51.3% · top-3 84.0% · pole baseline 52.9%
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Δ = grid - predicted finish (▲ gains, ▼ drops, = no change, - no grid yet)
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